Jobs day arrives with the warm-ups running soft.

After the best quarter since 2020, the third opens with the market's attention squarely on the labour data. A cool-but-not-cold print is the sweet spot — soft enough to keep rate-cut hopes alive, firm enough to avoid a growth scare — and today's number, landing into a holiday-thinned market, sets the tone through the long weekend.

• Semiconductors took profits after an ~80% first-half run — Micron led the give-back, dragging the Nasdaq.
• Platforms picked up the slack — Meta surged on a cloud pivot, with Microsoft and Apple higher.
• Soft data, steady bonds — ADP and ISM both eased; the 10-year held near 4.40% into payrolls.

Equity figures are Wednesday 1 Jul's close; rates and FX levels are the latest available and approximate ahead of the 8:30am jobs report.

Iran's decision to rule out direct talks keeps the diplomacy running through Qatari and Pakistani mediators — slower, but still moving — even as the core dispute over whether Iran can charge ships to transit Hormuz remains open. For the Gulf the practical picture is steady: vessels are moving, and Brent is holding near $73, far below the war highs. The mediated format again puts the region's capitals at the centre of the process. The risk is less an imminent blow-up than a stalemate that leaves a small, lingering premium in crude.

Vault Wealth's house view: the base case remains gradual normalisation, supportive of GCC financials and domestic-demand names; keep a modest hedge against strait-related headline risk while the fee dispute and the indirect talks play out.