The week opens with Hormuz closed and a Situation Room Tuesday.

Sun-night futures and Asia’s open priced the weekend before US cash trade resumes. The cards below carry the four readings that set the Monday open — the detailed account follows in the section below.

Saturday morning, IRGC spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari announced that U.S. military bases in the southern Persian Gulf would be “deactivated” if the U.S. maintained its blockade of Iranian ports. Over the next 24 hours the IRGC Navy refused to permit a single commercial vessel through the Strait of Hormuz — an operational shift from “restricted” to “closed”. Sunday evening the UAE confirmed it had intercepted three drones; one UAV caused a fire outside the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant. Trump rejected Iran’s most recent diplomatic proposal as “totally unacceptable” and Sunday night announced he would convene a Situation Room meeting Tuesday to review military options against Iran. Germany’s finance minister positioned the G7 as the right forum for diplomatic effort — implicit acknowledgment that bilateral channels have stalled.

Sun-night futures opened with all of this priced in. Brent gapped +4.4% to $114.10 as ICE July reopened; WTI +4.1% to $109.74. S&P futures −1.2%, Nasdaq futures −1.6%, Russell futures −1.8%. Gold rallied 1.6% on haven flow; the dollar firmed (DXY 99.18). Asia opened on the wrong side of the regime change — Nikkei −2.1%, Hang Seng −1.8%, KOSPI −1.4%. Hormuz throughput is now estimated near 2.5 mb/d (vs ~20 mb/d pre-crisis) — the Vault indicator pinned at CLOSED. The setup into Monday is asymmetric: Tuesday’s Situation Room is the binary event of the week; everything between now and then trades around the question of what Trump greenlights and what Iran does in response.

Each card below opens with a Spotlight row driving last week’s narrative for that asset class. Toggle the Week ⇄ YTD control above any spotlight to flip the entire card. Note: these are Friday close numbers — Sun-night futures and Asia-open moves are captured in the snapshot above, not in the cards below.

The weekend’s escalation re-weights the probability map toward Bear: Bear lifts to 40%, Base trims to 45%, Bull narrows to 15%. The binary risk is Tuesday’s Situation Room outcome — strikes or diplomacy. Each card below carries the scenario thesis, the positioning note Vault would write to a client this morning, and the asset-level targets for Friday’s close.

Tuesday’s Situation Room is the binary of the week. The April-meeting FOMC minutes Wednesday are the last under Powell; Walmart delivers its delayed Q1 print Thursday alongside Williams and Daly speaking — the first regional Fed speakers under Warsh. Friday is a half-day Treasury close ahead of Memorial Day weekend.

Sunday night’s drone strike outside the Barakah nuclear plant is the first direct attack on UAE infrastructure since the war started in mid-April. Three drones were intercepted; one penetrated the perimeter and caused an external fire. Barakah itself was unaffected — operations continue — but the symbolism is the headline: the GCC is no longer adjacent to the conflict, it is inside the perimeter. Sun-night repricing in regional credit was sharp: UAE 10-year eurobond spreads +12 bps, Saudi 5-yr CDS +15 bps, Qatar 5-yr +9 bps. DFM and ADX futures both indicating opens 1.6–2.2% lower; Aramco the cleanest read-through given the +4.4% Brent move (positive direct, negative second-order on regional risk premium).

For the week ahead, the regional positioning shifts. The Vault house view at the open: trim GCC overweight one notch; raise oil-linked equity (Aramco, ADNOC Distribution, regional E&P) to overweight on Brent positive carry; reduce banking and developer exposure given the higher-beta drawdown in a CLOSED-Hormuz / strike-risk regime. UAE airspace defence, Qatari diplomacy and Saudi production decisions are the three watch items between now and Friday. If Barakah-class attacks repeat, the indicator may need a fifth state (SUSPENDED) — Vault flags this as the asymmetric regional tail.

Three threads will define how the week plays out: Tuesday’s Situation Room, the Iranian response to whatever Trump decides, and how Warsh chooses to communicate (or stay silent) in his first week as Chair. The macro data calendar is light by design — the geopolitical calendar isn’t.