Hormuz · LARGEST STRIKES YET
US Central Command said it launched about 140 strikes on Iranian targets overnight Friday–Saturday — described as the largest single strike package of the conflict, in the third straight weekend of exchanges · the warning: President Trump said each attack on a ship in the strait will be met with a US strike on an Iranian bridge or power plant, and Iran said the strait “will never return” to pre-war conditions · on the water: traffic is down to ~25 ships a day, from a peak of 49 on 7 Jul, and Brent peaked near $102 Thursday before easing to ~$97 Friday · claims are contested and fast-moving
As of Sat 25 Jul 2026, 08:00 GST
The four things the weekend turns on.
~−0.6%
S&P 500 · week
a second straight weekly loss
~−2.1%
Nasdaq · week
AI-capex fear led lower
53.6
Flash PMI
8-month high; economy firm
~$102
Brent
peaked Thu; ~$97 Friday
Strong economy, weak tape.
The week’s message was that the market’s problems are not with the economy but with two prices: the price of AI growth and the price of oil. A genuinely strong PMI and a steady ECB said activity is holding up; yet investors sold the AI leaders anyway, because the earnings finally put a number on how much cash the build-out consumes — and, this time, chose to focus on the bill rather than the growth. Layered on top was a war that pushed crude to $102 before it cooled. Neither risk is resolved, and the weekend’s escalation — the largest strike package of the conflict — means the Gulf will again shape the open.
The bill for AI growth.
- Megacaps led the loss — Alphabet’s 7% capex-driven drop and Tesla’s 14% miss pulled the Nasdaq to a second weekly decline.
- The macro reassured — an eight-month-high PMI and a steady ECB showed the economy is holding up.
- Energy and gold led — oil’s spike toward $102 lifted energy, and gold pushed to record ground as the twin risks bit.
Figures are the week to Friday 24 Jul’s US close; rates, FX and commodity levels are the latest available and approximate. Single names appear as news, not recommendations. Times GST.
~−2.1%
Nasdaq · wk
AI-led
−7%
Alphabet
capex sold
53.6
Flash PMI
8-mo high
~$102
Brent
peak; ~$97 Fri
The earnings put a number on the AI build-out's cost, and investors chose to focus on it; Tesla's miss deepened the slide, while Intel's beat was the exception.
Show all moversHide movers
Week to Fri 24 Jul. Names shown as news.
US flash composite PMI beat forecasts and hit an eight-month high; the ECB held at 2.25%. The data says growth, not the economy, is the market's issue.
Show the dataHide the data
S&P Global flash, July; ECB decision 23 Jul.
Crude spiked to a war high near $102 as talks were ruled out, then fell ~4% Friday to $96.78; it still gained double digits on the week and led energy higher.
Show all commoditiesHide commodities
Commodity levels approximate, latest available.
Gold pushed toward records as the AI de-rating and the oil spike drove haven demand; the dollar was firm and crypto softened with tech.
Show all FX & cryptoHide FX & crypto
FX/crypto levels approximate, latest available.
The S&P's week, day by day.
S&P 500 · daily % change · week to Fri 24 Jul 2026
Choppy — and undone on Thursday.
A firm PMI supported the tape early, but Thursday's twin shock — Alphabet's capex sell-off and oil at $102 — set the week's direction.
Source: AP, CNBC, TheStreet; daily S&P 500 closes, 20–24 Jul 2026. Shown as % change.
Three threads from the week.
Tech · AI
The capex reckoning
- Alphabet fell 7% despite 82% cloud growth, sold on its AI spending; Tesla dropped 14%.
- Intel's beat was the exception — the market now wants profit, not just growth.
TheStreet · AP · 22–24 Jul
Macro
The economy held up
- Flash PMI hit an eight-month high of 53.6, and the ECB held at 2.25%.
- A reminder that this drawdown is about valuations and oil, not growth.
S&P Global · ECB · 23–24 Jul
Geopolitics
The largest strikes yet
- US Central Command launched ~140 strikes overnight, the biggest package of the conflict; Trump threatened Iranian infrastructure.
- Oil peaked near $102 before easing; traffic is down to ~25 ships a day.
CENTCOM · Bloomberg · Fox · 24–25 Jul
The largest strikes — and a hardening war.
The weekend marked the sharpest military escalation of the episode. US Central Command said it launched about 140 strikes on Iranian targets overnight — described as the largest single strike package of the conflict — in the third straight weekend of exchanges. President Trump warned that each attack on a ship in the strait will be answered with a US strike on an Iranian bridge or power plant, and Iran responded that the waterway “will never return” to pre-war conditions. Traffic has fallen to roughly 25 ships a day, from a peak of 49 on 7 July, and Brent peaked near $102 during the week before easing to about $97. The direction of travel is toward a longer, more entrenched disruption rather than a resolution, even as ships continue to transit for now. These are competing, fast-moving claims; verified transit and damage data remain the truest gauges.
Vault Wealth’s house view: we hold the more defensive tilt adopted as Brent cleared $90 — trimmed risk, energy and gold hedges retained, and selective GCC exposure where higher crude supports fundamentals. The weekend’s escalation, and the explicit threat to infrastructure on both sides, raise the odds of a renewed move toward $100; a credible return to talks or a sustained retreat below $90 would be the trigger to add risk back.
Overnight
~140 strikes
Largest package of the conflict
Traffic
~25/day
From a peak of 49 on 7 Jul
Brent
~$97
Peaked ~$102; up on the week
Want to discuss what this means for your portfolio?
Book a meeting with a Vault Wealth advisor for a personalised read on positioning, hedging and regional risk.