United Arab Emirates · Daily briefing
Double Espresso Daily · Thursday · PCE day
Vol 14 / №84 · Thursday, 25 June 2026

Inflation day — as oil collapses and Micron breaks the gloom.

May PCE lands at 8:30am ET, forecast at +4.1% year-on-year and widely expected to mark this year's inflation peak. Yet the forces behind it are already turning: oil cratered on Wednesday, with Brent down 4.33% to $73.74 as the war premium drains. And after the bell Micron blew past estimates and jumped about 15%, challenging the chip-rout narrative that has gripped the week. Stocks steadied into the print — the S&P 500 slipped just 0.10%.

MarketsDaily briefing8 min read
S&P 500 −0.10% Nasdaq −0.43% Micron +15% after hours Semis · SMH +3% after hours Brent −4.33% · $73.74 WTI −3.92% · $70.34 Gold bid US 10-Yr ~4.45% EUR/USD ~1.073 DXY 1-yr high Bitcoin ~$62k May PCE 8:30am · f/c +4.1% y/y Hormuz Oman corridor open S&P 500 −0.10% Nasdaq −0.43% Micron +15% after hours Semis · SMH +3% after hours Brent −4.33% · $73.74 WTI −3.92% · $70.34 Gold bid US 10-Yr ~4.45% EUR/USD ~1.073 DXY 1-yr high Bitcoin ~$62k May PCE 8:30am · f/c +4.1% y/y Hormuz Oman corridor open
Hormuz · CORRIDOR OPEN

Oman's temporary corridor keeps navigation flowing; oil fell sharply as the war premium drains · caveat: still interim and fragile — evacuation contingencies reported; nuclear-inspection claims disputed

As of Thu 25 Jun 2026, 06:30 GST

01 · Market Snapshot

The four numbers Thursday is opening on.

+4.1%

May PCE · 8:30am

y/y forecast · seen as the peak

+15%

Micron · after hours

blowout reframes the chip rout

−4.33%

Brent · Wed

to $73.74 as the war premium drains

−0.10%

S&P 500 · Wed

steadies before the print

02 · The Lead

A backward-looking peak, a forward-looking thaw.

The set-up is a tension between backward- and forward-looking inflation: today's number should confirm a May peak even as its main driver, oil, is now falling fast. Micron's results, meanwhile, suggest the AI-capex anxiety that drove the week's selloff may have run ahead of the actual demand.

03 · Market Reactions

Stocks steady, oil slides, Micron pops late.

  • Equities stabilised after the chip rout — the indices barely moved into PCE.
  • Oil was the day's big move, Brent and WTI both down about 4% to multi-month lows.
  • Micron's after-hours beat lifted semis and memory names, setting a firmer tone for the open.

Equity index figures are Wednesday 24 Jun's close (Micron is after-hours); rates and FX levels are the latest available and approximate ahead of the 8:30am PCE print.

+4.1%

May PCE · f/c

y/y · due 8:30am ET

−4.33%

Brent · Wed

to $73.74

+15%

Micron · AH

beat + raised guide

−0.10%

S&P 500 · Wed

steadied pre-PCE

Equities · VIX
Spotlight · Micron (after hours)
+15%
blowout quarter, raised guidance

A clean beat on AI-memory demand challenged the week's “AI is overheating” fear; semis rose ~3% after hours.

Show all indices
S&P 500 −0.10% · steadied
Nasdaq −0.43% · chips no bounce
Micron (after hrs) +15% · blowout + raised guide
VIX eased as panic faded
Commodities
Spotlight · Brent
$73.74
−4.33% · war premium drains

Oman's corridor and the Washington talks pulled crude to multi-month lows — disinflationary for what comes after May.

Show all commodities
WTI $70.34 −3.92%
Gold ~$4,110 haven bid
Silver ~$75 ~flat
Nat Gas ~$4.8 eased
Rates · Bonds
Spotlight · US 10-Yr
4.45%
~ little changed before PCE

Yields held near one-year highs; the PCE print is the next catalyst for the hike path.

Show all rates
US 2-Yr ~4.20% steady
US 30-Yr ~4.96% steady
Fed funds 3.50-3.75% hike priced by Oct

Yield-up = red, yield-down = green. Levels approximate, pre-PCE.

FX · Crypto
Spotlight · US Dollar
1-yr high
firm into the inflation print

The dollar held near a one-year high as markets keep a 2026 hike in play ahead of PCE.

Show all FX & crypto
EUR/USD ~1.073 steady
USD/JPY ~161 steady
Bitcoin ~$62k soft with tech

FX/crypto levels approximate, latest available.

04 · Chart of the Day

Micron blew past every estimate.

Micron Q3 · result vs estimate

A blowout that questions the chip-rout.

After a three-day semiconductor selloff on fears the AI trade had overheated, the memory bellwether delivered the opposite signal.

vs estimate EPS $25.11 vs $20.39 est +23% Revenue $41.5bn vs $35.1bn est +18% Q4 revenue guide ~$50bn vs $43.6bn est +15%
Key takeaway · EPS, revenue and next-quarter guidance all landed well above forecasts on AI-memory demand; the stock rose ~15% after hours and lifted the semiconductor and memory ETFs — evidence the demand is real, not just hype.

Source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance, company release, 24 Jun 2026. Q4 guide uses the midpoint of $49–51bn.

05 · What Else Matters

Three headlines shaping today.

Tech · AI

Micron breaks the chip gloom

  • Beat big — EPS $25.11 vs $20.39, revenue $41.5bn vs $35.1bn, gross margin ~85% — and raised Q4 guidance to $49–51bn.
  • Shares jumped ~15% after hours; the CEO said memory shortages will take years to ease.

CNBC · Yahoo Finance · 24 Jun

Macro

PCE day — the expected peak

  • May PCE is forecast at +4.1% y/y and +0.5% m/m, with core at +0.37% — energy the main driver.
  • Economists see May as this year's high-water mark; the print frames the Fed's hike debate.

Morningstar · BEA · due 25 Jun

Commodities

Oil's premium drains away

  • Brent fell 4.33% to $73.74 and WTI 3.92% to $70.34 — multi-month lows.
  • Oman's Hormuz corridor and the Washington talks keep pulling the war premium out of crude.

TheStreet · Reuters · 24 Jun

06 · MENA Focus

Crude near multi-month lows reshapes the math.

Wednesday's oil slide is a double-edged story for the Gulf. A Brent near $74 eases costs for the region's importers and consumers and reflects a calmer security backdrop — Oman's maritime corridor is keeping Hormuz navigable — but it also squeezes the export revenue that funds the region's budgets and giga-projects. The de-escalation that is pulling crude lower is real but still interim, with the Washington talks unresolved and inspection claims disputed. Dollar pegs mean the Fed's hawkish path keeps regional financial conditions tight regardless of today's print.

Vault Wealth's house view: a softer-oil, calmer-geopolitics mix favours GCC domestic-demand and financial names over energy producers at the margin; stay selective and watchful of headline risk around the strait and Lebanon while the talks continue.

Brent

$73.74

−4.33% · multi-month low

Hormuz

Oman corridor

IMO-coordinated transit lane keeps shipping flowing

Currency pegs

Dollar-linked

GCC still imports US higher-for-longer policy

Want to discuss what this means for your portfolio?

Book a meeting with a Vault Wealth advisor for a personalised read on positioning, hedging and regional risk.

Talk to an advisor
Share

Subscribe

The Daily Pour, in your inbox.

A five-minute markets briefing every weekday. Free, considered, no noise.

No spam. Unsubscribe in one click.

Speak to an advisor

Wealth advice, built around you.

Plan, invest, and save with a dedicated advisor — without the conflicts of a private bank.