Hormuz · REOPENING
20+ tankers carrying ~35m barrels have now cleared the strait; oil has erased its wartime gains · caveat: still interim — the central route is being demined and the talks are unresolved
As of Fri 26 Jun 2026, 06:30 GST
The four numbers Friday is opening on.
4.1%
May PCE
y/y · in line; monthly came in softer
4.39%
US 10-Yr yield
lowest since mid-May as fears ease
−0.46%
Nasdaq · Thu
4th straight drop, despite Micron +17%
<$73
Brent
war premium fully erased
A friendlier macro, a stubborn tech unwind.
The backdrop turned friendlier this week — an in-line inflation peak, collapsing oil and a bond rally — yet the market's old leaders keep derating. The question now is less about the Fed than about whether the AI and mega-cap complex can find a floor.
Bonds rally, oil sinks, tech stays heavy.
- An in-line PCE eased the worst fears — yields fell, with the 10-year at its lowest since mid-May.
- Oil kept sliding, erasing the war premium as Hormuz traffic resumed.
- Tech stayed heavy — Apple's 6% drop outweighed Micron's 17% surge; the Nasdaq fell a fourth day.
Equity figures are Thursday 25 Jun's close; FX levels are the latest available and approximate.
4.1%
May PCE · y/y
in line · 2023 high
4.39%
US 10-Yr
lowest since mid-May
−0.46%
Nasdaq · Thu
4th straight drop
<$73
Brent
war premium erased
Apple led the Nasdaq to a fourth straight loss on MacBook and iPad price increases — even a 17% Micron surge couldn't offset it.
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A softer-than-feared monthly PCE, plus collapsing oil, pulled yields down and eased the hawkish-Fed pressure.
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Yield-up = red, yield-down = green. 2-Yr approximate.
More than 20 tankers (~35m barrels) have cleared Hormuz; the supply scare that drove the year's inflation has unwound.
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Commodity levels approximate, latest available.
The dollar slipped from a one-year high as Treasury yields fell on the softer monthly inflation read.
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FX/crypto levels approximate, latest available.
A 17% Micron pop couldn't lift the Nasdaq.
Thursday's movers · % change
A blowout, a 6% drop, a flat tape.
Micron's surge and Apple's slide cancelled out at the index level — the market went almost nowhere while individual names moved violently.
Source: TheStreet, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, close of Thu 25 Jun 2026.
Three headlines shaping today.
Macro
Inflation peaks — without a sting
- May PCE hit 4.1% y/y (a 2023 high) but the monthly +0.4% came in below forecast; core ran +0.3%.
- The 10-year fell to 4.39%, its lowest since mid-May — and oil's drop isn't in the data yet.
CNBC · Yahoo Finance · BEA · 25 Jun
Tech
Apple drags as Micron soars
- Apple fell 6% on MacBook and iPad price increases, leading the Nasdaq to a 4th straight loss.
- Micron jumped 17% on its blowout, but the mega-cap unwind kept the index red.
TheStreet · CNBC · 25 Jun
Commodities
Oil's war premium is gone
- Brent fell under $73 and WTI to ~$69, erasing the gains from the conflict.
- More than 20 tankers (~35m barrels) have now cleared Hormuz since the agreement.
Reuters · TheStreet · 25 Jun
Hormuz clears; the premium is gone.
The reopening is now visible on the water: more than 20 tankers carrying roughly 35 million barrels have moved through Hormuz, and oil has given back the entirety of its wartime gains. For the Gulf that is a genuine de-risking — lower shipping and insurance costs, a calmer security picture — but a Brent under $73 also squeezes the export revenue that funds regional budgets and giga-projects. The de-escalation is real, though still interim with the talks unresolved. A softer global inflation read and lower US yields ease imported financial conditions a touch via the dollar pegs.
Vault Wealth's house view: cheaper oil and calmer geopolitics favour GCC domestic-demand and financial names over energy producers at the margin; stay selective, and treat the lower-yield, lower-oil mix as a modest tailwind for regional risk assets while the talks continue.
Hormuz
~35m bbl
Cleared by 20+ tankers since the agreement
Brent
<$73
War premium fully erased
US yields
Lower
Eases dollar-linked financial conditions
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